We can’t shy away from it any longer – climate change is causing conflict.

It is now more important than ever for peacebuilding programmes to address climate change as a key driving force behind conflict.

[WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, 2023]

As climate change intensifies, its impact will be felt most across the countries and localities where Concordis operates. This is where people are least resilient to the effects of climate change, and where conflict fragility is greatest.

Concordis’ peacebuilding efforts help communities to adapt to this new reality. We help people adapt to the effects of climate change, and we help them to manage conflict peacefully.

Only in May this year, the UN World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) confirmed that global temperatures are likely to exceed 1.5°C of warming in the coming years for the first time. This rise is in part due to the atmospheric conditions produced by a forthcoming El Nińo event, as well as the steady output of greenhouse gas emissions.  

While this increase is not expected to last in the long term, it should still be met with concern. Climate change is not only a problem because of increasing temperatures, but extreme weather events are far more frequent and far more intense. This is particularly the case in the Sahel, where droughts and floods are worsening.

Unpacking the impact of climatic variables in Concordis’ country programmes 

Through our work in Darfur, Abyei, and more broadly the Central African Republic (CAR), we’ve witnessed how climatic variables play a key role in driving conflict. When rains are lighter or more erratic than expected, farmers and herders change their pattern of farming and the timing of their cattle movement.  

Typically, nomadic herding communities move to find fertile lands for their cattle during the dry season and then return home during the wet season. If herders move unexpectedly onto farmland, it is likely to cause conflict with the farming community.  

Cattle can damage crops and if they’re destroyed on a large scale, it is likely to cause food insecurity in the area. Worsened by the fact that 1°C of warming could result in as much as a 10-30% decrease in staple crop production, effectively threatening livelihoods and sending shocks along supply chains [1].

The most recent IPCC report notes that climate-driven food insecurity is projected to increase with global warming and interact with other risk drivers, including competition for land and conflict [2].

In Chad, we have evidence of climate change causing conflict in practice. This is because we’ve seen herding communities in the North being displaced further South, increasing pressure on the availability of land. Herders from the North followed the rains and permanently moved their zone d’attache (base) to the South, near the border with CAR.

Such land then suffered from overgrazing and forced more herders than normal to cross the border, sometimes permanently and sometimes seasonally. This stoked tensions not only because farmers in CAR were worried about unvaccinated cattle and the trampling of cropland, but there’s a live, ongoing conflict which herders are now caught up in.

Like the movement of herders from Chad to CAR, a similar situation is occurring in North Darfur, where people are being displaced into West, Central, and South Darfur.

West Darfur has long suffered from conflict between different communities drawn along communal/ethnic lines. The influx of herding communities from different ethnic backgrounds exacerbates these tensions.

Highlighting the role of peacebuilding in climate change adaptation 

Conflict occurs when people are pushed into certain areas, especially if there are existing tensions or a lack of land available. The availability of water and other natural resources is also an issue in this regard – long-term climatic variations may cause the water table to deplete.  

If this happens, wells are likely to dry, causing rifts between communities that are both dependent upon the same source. Especially if these groups have historical disputes and grievances.

Floods are an additional conflict risk. In Abyei, recent flooding pushed Ngok Dink cattle into Twic Dinka herds, with tensions between the two groups historically breaking out into violence.  

In the words of Dr. Theresa Liebig, “climate change and conflict are linked by a network of indirect relationships” [3].

This is why it is so important for peacebuilding mechanisms to form part of our climate adaptation plan. With climate change forecast to worsen, conflict associated with such will also worsen.

Good conflict resolution can prevent the proliferation and escalation of violence when communities are forced to relocate, and increased pressure is placed on natural resources.  

Peacebuilding organisations like Concordis not only help communities to establish effective dialogue and forums to discuss environmental issues, but they allow locals to manage conflicts themselves.

When communities – including farmers and herders – cooperate with each other, they are increasingly resilient to climate variability and shocks. Meaning that they’re less likely to engage in conflict.

Livestock grazing fertilises farmers’ fields. Both groups also benefit from trading goods such as milk, meat, and leather goods; and cattle can even be hired to help plough fields and improve yields.  

Climate change poses a serious, existential threat to the environment and its inhabitants. To address this challenge and adapt to its negative effects, we need an interdisciplinary and collaborative approach that brings together specialists in natural science and peacebuilding, alongside policymakers and local communities.  

Peacebuilding is a key part of climate adaptation, and it must be recognised as such.

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Burke, M.B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J.A., & Lobell, D.B., 2009. Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. Proceeding of National Academy of Sciences, vol. 106, no. 49.
IPCC, 2023. Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Speaking at the launch of the Climate Security Observatory, April 2023.